“March property market report”
Here’s your property market wrap on the results from April 2026. We’ll cover home prices, rents, the strongest growth areas across Metropolitan Melbourne and Regional Victoria, and the factors shaping sentiment for the months ahead.
April confirmed a further slowdown across Australia’s housing market. Cotality’s national Home Value Index rose 0.3% over the month, the slowest monthly growth result since January 2025. The national result was dragged lower by Sydney and Melbourne, with both markets recording a 0.6% fall in dwelling values over April. Melbourne’s quarterly result now sits at -1.5%, with annual growth easing to 2.0% and the city’s median dwelling value at $822,969. Regional Victoria remained more resilient, with dwelling values rising 0.6% over the month, 1.4% over the quarter and 7.9% annually, with a median dwelling value of $633,237.
For Melbourne, the April result points to a market where buyer caution is becoming more visible. Cotality notes Melbourne values are now 1.9% below their November 2025 cyclical high and 2.3% below the March 2022 peak. Advertised stock has also lifted, sitting 2.2% above the five-year average, while auction clearance rates have held below 55% since late March. In practical terms, buyers have more choice, confidence has softened, and sellers are operating in a more competitive environment than they were late last year.
A key theme remains the difference between price points. Cotality continues to report stronger performance across lower-priced segments, where demand is being supported by affordability constraints, serviceability limits and first home buyer activity. That is important for Victoria, because it helps explain why a number of outer and middle-ring Melbourne sub-markets are still recording solid annual growth, even while the broader Melbourne market has moved backwards over the month.
Even with Melbourne easing at the headline level, several metropolitan SA3 markets have delivered strong annual dwelling growth. Cotality’s top 5 SA3 areas for Metropolitan Melbourne by annual dwelling value growth at April 2026 were:
- Frankston — median value $844,559, annual growth 9.0%
- Sunbury — $743,222, 8.9%
- Brimbank — $731,253, 8.0%
- Keilor — $1,064,368, 7.1%
- Casey - South — $814,309, 6.3%
Across Regional Victoria, conditions remain steadier. Regional markets nationally have continued to outperform the capital cities, with the combined regional index rising 0.9% in April and 3.1% over the quarter, compared with 0.2% and 1.1% respectively across the combined capitals. Regional Victoria’s annual growth of 7.9% remains well ahead of Melbourne’s 2.0%, supported by comparatively lower price points and more resilient demand.
The leading regional Victorian SA3s at April 2026 with the highest 12-month value growth for dwellings are:
- Grampians — median value $388,742, annual change 16.5%
- Latrobe Valley — $503,137, 15.7%
- Mildura — $547,359, 15.4%
- Glenelg - Southern Grampians — $444,207, 12.8%
- Ballarat — $632,095, 12.6%
On the rental side, pressure remains persistent. Cotality reports that the national rental vacancy rate held at 1.6% in April, with rents rising a further 0.6% over the month and 5.7% over the year. Melbourne’s rental growth remains more moderate than some other capitals, with house rents up 4.3% annually and unit rents up 4.9%, but the broader rental market is still tight and affordability remains under pressure.
There is also growing attention on the upcoming 12 May Federal Budget and the potential impact of tax reform on housing and investment markets. This comes at the same time as the Reserve Bank of Australia prepares for its 5 May meeting, with the cash rate currently sitting at 4.10% and financial markets pointing to the likelihood of another increase.
For the property market, this creates a double layer of uncertainty. Higher interest rates would place further pressure on borrowing capacity and buyer confidence, while potential changes to capital gains tax, negative gearing and family trusts could influence investor behaviour. The discussion around tax reform has centred on intergenerational fairness, housing affordability and the tax treatment of investment income. Prior to 1999, capital gains tax used an inflation indexation model, which taxed only real gains. Any change to the current CGT discount may require some form of transitional or grandfathering arrangement for existing investments, particularly where assets have been held for long periods.
There has also been speculation that negative gearing could be limited to two investment properties. ATO data reported by the AFR shows 72% of Australia’s 2.2 million landlords own one investment property and 19% own two. That means a two-property cap would affect a smaller share of investors directly, but it would still be closely watched by professional investors and could influence sentiment, supply and rental market decisions. Combined with the prospect of another interest rate rise, investors are likely to be assessing not only tax settings, but also cash flow, yields and the cost of holding property.
What home sellers need to know right now
Sellers need to understand that the market has become more selective. Melbourne is no longer being carried by broad-based momentum. Buyers have more choice, auction clearance rates are softer, and affordability constraints are limiting how far many purchasers can stretch. If the RBA moves again on 5 May, borrowing capacity may tighten further and some buyers may become more cautious, particularly in higher price brackets.
That does not mean good properties are not selling, but it does mean pricing, presentation and campaign execution matter more. Homes that are well-positioned, well-presented and realistically priced are still attracting interest, particularly in affordable and family-oriented corridors. Over-ambitious pricing, however, is more likely to be exposed in this environment, especially if interest rate and tax policy uncertainty weigh further on confidence.
Remember, the information provided is of a general nature only. You should always seek independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice based on your own circumstances.
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