“July Market Update - Melbourne Values Edge Up, Inflation Cools”
Hi everyone, I’m Jason Mudford from OBrien Real Estate with the July property news for 2025.
July closed on a noticeably brighter note for Melbourne’s housing market, with momentum, employment and policy settings finally pointing in the same direction.
Cotality’s Home Value Index shows Melbourne dwelling values rose 0.4 % in July, lifting the median for combined dwelling to $803,424. With the annual change now in positive territory (0.5%) with consistent monthly growth it’s safe to say the bottom of the cycle has passed. Low advertised stock (-5.8 % year-on-year nationally) and a modest uptick in auction clearance rates are underpinning prices.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate edged up to 4.3 % in June giving us a slightly softer job market. The June-quarter CPI rose just 0.7 %, taking annual inflation down to 2.1 % – back inside the Reserve Bank’s 2-3 % target band for the first time in four years.
With both headline and trimmed-mean inflation surprising on the low side, financial markets now price a 95% chance of a 0.25% rate cut when the RBA meets on 12 August. A lower rate would relieve borrowing-capacity constraints just as sentiment improves, setting the scene for a more active spring selling season.
Melbourne’s medium-term growth story is strengthening as several decade-defining projects near the finish line:
- Metro Tunnel – five new underground stations have been handed over for testing and the 9 km tunnel is slated to open to passengers by year-end 2025.
- West Gate Tunnel – final winter shutdowns are under way as crews “get ready to open” the tunnel later in 2025.
These projects, together with rapidly progressing early works on the North East Link, promise faster commutes, expanded catchments and fresh pockets of demand across Melbourne’s inner-north, west and south-east.
July also marks the network wide launch of Axis, OBrien Real Estate’s new data-rich property guide. Inside, you’ll find suburb spotlights, future infrastructure works, population projections, future economic growth. Its release is perfectly timed; as the market pivots from hesitation to opportunity, Axis gives agents, buyers and sellers a common evidence base to act with confidence.
The confluence of cheaper credit, tight listings, population growth returning to trend and the delivery of transformative infrastructure should draw a fresh wave of owner-occupiers and investors into the market through spring and into 2026. For vendors, early listing ahead of the rate move could capture renewed buyer urgency; for buyers, disciplined due diligence (now easier with Axis) will be essential as competition builds.
Remember, the information provided is of a general nature – always seek independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice in relation to your unique circumstances.
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