“Data-Driven Decisions Best Guide Us”
Hi Guys, it’s Dean OBrien from OBrien Real Estate with another edition of the Property News for 2020 where real estate information is on the house.
The good news this week:
- Nationally over 110,000 new jobs were added in August lowering the unemployment rate to 6.8% down from its 22 year high of 7.5% in July and the cherry on top was the youth jobless dropping by 2%. For Victorians, we lost 42,400 jobs to put us at 7.1% unemployment. It seems unlikely that the RBA’s forecast of 10% unemployment by the end of year will be reached.
- The Morrison government is preparing to unleash an astounding amount of spending in next month’s budget to drag the country out of its first recession in 29 years with all to be revealed in the October 6 budget.
The US Election is still 7 weeks away but markets become volatile when a new incumbent President is expected to win and we are seeing that at the moment. The Election is on for Tuesday 3 November and Joe Biden is leading the opinion polls. This election would normally be the biggest event for 2020 if it wasn’t for the “Black Swan Covid-19” event. An interesting piece of data I have read is since 1928 in 19 of the 23 elections US shares post an election has seen an average surge of 11.3% in growth over the course of the next 12 months. However, since 1952 every time US stocks have experienced a bear market or the US has endured a recession the president has lost their place in the White House.
You’ll see from the graph shown that WA leads the way to recovery and you’ll see NSW steadying the ship and sadly the fortunes of Victoria is suffering the most. The RBA notes that Western Australia is leading the economic recovery, Deputy Governor-general Guy Debelle said: “The pick-up in WA has been such that some of the Bank’s business liaison contacts are reporting that in some skill areas they are finding it hard to find labour.
Onto the sales across Victoria for the week, Corelogic data reveals 7 auction results with all 7 selling, it’s worth noting the same time last year Victoria had 1020 auctions with strong clearance rates of over 75%. Nationally the auctions numbers are on a par with last year if we exclude Victoria and the clearance rate is better this year than last year. The listing trend continues with at least 75% fewer listings hitting the market. If you’re considering selling your home the amount of subdued supply on the market and the low absorption rate should assist you in selling at a better price now rather than later. Private sales across the state amounted to 820 which is similar to last week.
And lastly, this week, based on our Roadmap to open Metro Melbourne has some relief is coming this Monday 28 September, the main changes are public gatherings where up to 5 people from a maximum of 2 households can meet outdoors so expect to see a lot of picnics from Monday. Childcare will open which will give some respite to families and when school holidays are over will see prep to grade 2 and VCE students return as well as specialist schools. And one on one outdoor exercise with a personal trainer will be allowed.
That’s all for this week, I’m Dean OBrien and remember the information provided is of a general nature you should always seek independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice in relation to your unique circumstances.