Monthly Property News 4th Edition 2026.

“March property market report”

Here’s your property market wrap on the results from March 2026. We’ll cover home prices, rents, and the factors shaping sentiment across Metropolitan Melbourne and Regional Victoria.

March reinforced the increasingly uneven picture across Australia’s housing market. National dwelling values rose 0.7% over the month and 2.1% over the March quarter, but that strength was again driven by the smaller capitals and regional markets. Melbourne slipped 0.2% in March, taking quarterly change to -0.6%, while annual growth held at 3.4% and the city’s median dwelling value reached $828,249. Regional Victoria performed more firmly, with dwelling values rising 0.6% over the month, 1.8% over the quarter and 8.0% annually, with the median dwelling value at $633,838.

For Melbourne, the March result points to a market that is no longer moving in one broad direction. Cotality notes that Melbourne values have fallen 0.9% since the end of November, with the softer trend lining up with weaker auction clearance rates and an increase in advertised supply. In practical terms, buyers are gaining more choice and more negotiating leverage, while sellers are facing a more competitive environment than they were late last year.

We’ve seen for several months now, more affordable segments are continuing to hold up better than higher-priced stock. Cotality attributes this to serviceability constraints pushing more buyers towards the lower end of the market, where competition remains stronger. That is an important point for Victoria, because it helps explain why a number of outer and middle-ring Melbourne sub-markets are still posting solid annual gains even while the broader metro result softened in March.

Even with Melbourne easing at the headline level, several metro SA3 markets have delivered strong annual dwelling growth. Cotality’s top 10 SA3 areas for Metropolitan Melbourne by annual dwelling value growth at March 2026 were:

  1. Frankston — median value $851,755, annual growth 11.3%
  2. Keilor — $1,071,764, 9.5%
  3. Sunbury — $747,417, 9.0%
  4. Brimbank — $729,315, 8.6%
  5. Tullamarine–Broadmeadows — $745,469, 7.5%
  6. Casey–South — $816,712, 6.7%
  7. Cardinia — $792,730, 6.6%
  8. Kingston — $1,080,626, 6.4%
  9. Dandenong — $787,238, 6.3%
  10. Whittlesea–Wallan — $782,563, 6.2%

Across Regional Victoria, conditions remain steadier. Values lifted 0.6% in March and are now 8.0% higher over the year. That fits the broader national pattern where combined regional markets outpaced the combined capitals over the month and quarter. Lower price points, relatively better affordability and more resilient owner-occupier demand continue to support regional performance, even as confidence weakens nationally.

Regional Victoria also continues to produce some of the state’s strongest annual growth stories. The leading regional SA3s at March 2026 with the highest 12-month value growth for dwellings are:

  1. Latrobe Valley — median value $502,620, annual change 15.3%
  2. Mildura — $544,168, 14.8%
  3. Ballarat — $633,540, 14.2%
  4. Grampians — $384,858, 14.0%
  5. Wodonga – Alpine — $692,924, 13.2%
  6. Maryborough – Pyrenees — $394,455, 13.1%
  7. Bendigo — $650,364, 12.2%
  8. Wellington — $490,662, 11.4%
  9. Loddon – Elmore — $416,687, 10.5%
  10. Glenelg – Southern Grampians — $445,082, 10.4%

On the rental side, pressure remains persistent. Cotality shows the national rental index rose 0.7% in March, with rents up 5.7% annually, the fastest annual growth since October 2024. The report also notes that rental affordability is already stretched, with a median-income household spending about 33% of pre-tax income on rent at current median market rates.

In Victoria, REIV’s latest figures show median weekly rents across Metropolitan Melbourne at $580 for houses and $575 for units, while Regional Victoria sits at $495 for houses and $400 for units. REIV also reports vacancy rates of 2.6% across metropolitan Melbourne and 2.2% across regional Victoria in February, showing some lift in availability but still a market where affordability remains under pressure.

Looking more closely at where rents are moving fastest, Domain’s latest rental reporting shows that a number of Melbourne suburbs recorded double-digit annual rent increases over 2025. For houses, Princes Hill led with rents up 18.3% to $1,000 a week, followed by Caulfield at 17.6% and Hawthorn East at 16.7%. In the unit market, Moorabbin and Burwood both posted rent growth of more than 18% over the year.

What home sellers need to know right now

Sellers need to understand that the market has become more selective. Melbourne is no longer in a phase where broad-based momentum does the heavy lifting. Buyers have more stock to choose from, confidence has softened and affordability constraints are limiting how far many purchasers can stretch. That means pricing discipline, presentation and campaign strategy matter more than they did six to nine months ago. Homes that are well-positioned and realistically priced are still attracting competition, particularly in affordable and family-oriented corridors, but over-ambitious quoting or poor campaign execution is more likely to be exposed in this environment.

Will conditions change this year?

Conditions can still shift through the rest of 2026, but the most likely change is not a sharp rebound or a major correction, it is a more uneven and cautious market. Cotality expects outcomes to remain mixed, with affordable segments likely to hold up better while higher-value markets face more pressure from borrowing constraints and cost-of-living headwinds. Key watchpoints will be inflation, interest rates, listings volumes and whether confidence stabilises. If supply continues to rise and sentiment stays soft, Melbourne may remain subdued. But if rates begin to ease later in the year, that could improve confidence and support demand, especially in value-led parts of the market.

Remember, the information provided is of a general nature only. You should always seek independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice based on your own circumstances.Free Sales Price Report: https://www.obrienrealestate.com.au/property-report/

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